In this case, scientists have data from only one recent eruption, so for now they are assuming the activity is likely to follow a similar pattern. Predicting what happens next is largely based on what a particular volcano has done before. The Mount Agung volcano in the Popular tourist island Bali in Indonesia erupted. The big explosions, including pyroclastic flows (superheated and fast-flowing currents of gas and rock), came later, in March and May, with activity lasting nearly a year. The Bali volcano eruption on Monday caused more than 700 people to evacuate. The last eruption, which began in February 1963, involved about a month of small explosions, ash emissions, lava flows and mudflows. “It wouldn’t have been a surprise if it had erupted straight away, but in fact the earthquake activity died away,” said Pyle. Starting in 2017, it is still ongoing but in its first year led to airspace closures and widespread evacuations. Telltale signals picked up by those monitoring the volcano, including changing patterns in the frequency and intensity of earthquakes beneath it, have suggested since September that an eruption is brewing, and evacuations were also carried out then. The recent eruption of Mount Agung in Bali made headlines around the world. It is the sort of volcano that probably erupts once every hundred years or so.” How hard is it to predict an eruption? After 53 years of quiescence, Mount Agung awoke in August 2017, with intense seismicity, measurable ground deformation, and thermal anomalies in the summit crater. It is a young active volcano, and it has a long history of repeated explosive eruptions. “Far more would die this time in a similar eruption because population density has gone up,” says Rothery.ĭavid Pyle, professor in earth sciences at the University of Oxford, said: “The evacuated area could be totally devastated by this. Yes, the last eruption was in 1963 and killed more than 1,000 people. A photograph taken by Benjamin Franklin Loomis shows Mount Lassen erupting in May 1915. As the pressure builds, an eruption becomes more likely. California's most recent volcanic eruption rained ash for 300 miles. As the mixture – known as magma – rises, the gases form bubbles. YouTube Live: Klauea See real-time video of Halemaumau crater at the summit of Klauea Watch Livestream B1cam Captures the Onset of Klauea Summit Eruption SeptemWatch Video Klauea Summit Eruption Sampling The sample will provide information on magma storage and transport before it was erupted onto the surface as lava. Geological processes at the ocean floor mean molten rock is rising upwards with dissolved gases, including water vapour and sulphur dioxide. And those few people still dangerously close to the volcano I hope will now be getting away because there could be something catastrophic about to happen.” Why might Mount Agung be about to erupt? “It is very hard to have people in emergency shelters for such a length of time – there are all sorts of social issues that can arise – but they have done it and people have largely complied. David Rothery, professor of planetary geosciences at the Open University, said the move to evacuate was wise.
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